Estimation of Absolute Risk of Colorectal Cancer Based on Healthy Lifestyle, Genetic Risk, and Colonoscopy Status in a Population-Based Study

Background & aims: Estimates of absolute risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) are needed to facilitate communication and better inform the public about the potentials and limits of cancer prevention.

Methods: Using data from a large population-based case-control study in Germany (Darmkrebs: Chancen der Verhütung durch Screening [DACHS] study, which began in 2003) and population registry data, we calculated 30-year absolute risk estimates for development of CRC based on a healthy lifestyle score (derived from 5 modifiable lifestyle factors: smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, physical activity, and body fatness), a polygenic risk score (based on 90 single-nucleotide polymorphisms), and colonoscopy history.

Results: We analyzed data from 4220 patients with CRC and 3338 individuals without CRC. Adherence to a healthy lifestyle and colonoscopy in the preceding 10 years were associated with a reduced relative risk of CRC in men and women. We observed a higher CRC risk in participants with high or intermediate genetic risk scores. For 50-year-old men and women without a colonoscopy, the absolute risk of CRC varied according to the polygenic risk score and the healthy lifestyle score (men, 3.5%-13.4%; women, 2.5%-10.6%). For 50-year-old men and women with a colonoscopy, the absolute risk of developing CRC was much lower but still varied according to the polygenic risk score and the healthy lifestyle score (men, 1.2%-4.8%; women, 0.9%-4.2%). Among all risk factor profiles, the 30-year absolute risk estimates consistently decreased with adherence to a healthy lifestyle.

Conclusions: In a population-based study, we found that a colonoscopy can drastically reduce the absolute risk of CRC and that the genetically predetermined risk of CRC can be further reduced by adherence to a healthy lifestyle. Our results show the magnitude of CRC prevention possible through colonoscopy and lifestyle at a predefined genetic risk. This observational study has been registered in the German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS00011793), which is a primary registry in the World Health Organization Registry Network.