Climate factors and the East Asian summer monsoon may drive large outbreaks of dengue in China

Keke Liu; Xiang Hou; Zhoupeng Ren; Rachel Lowe; Yiguan Wang; Ruiyun Li; Xiaobo Liu; Jimin Sun; Liang Lu; Xiupin Song; Haixia Wu; Jun Wang; Wenwu Yao; Chutian Zhang; Shaowei Sang; Yuan Gao; Jing Li; Jianping Li; Lei Xu; Qiyong Liu

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2020.109190

Climate factors and the East Asian summer monsoon may drive large outbreaks of dengue in China

Environ Res. 2020 Apr:183:109190. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109190. Epub 2020 Feb 1.

Authors

Keke Liu¹, Xiang Hou², Zhoupeng Ren³, Rachel Lowe⁴, Yiguan Wang⁵, Ruiyun Li⁶, Xiaobo Liu⁷, Jimin Sun⁸, Liang Lu⁷, Xiupin Song⁷, Haixia Wu⁷, Jun Wang⁷, Wenwu Yao⁸, Chutian Zhang⁹, Shaowei Sang¹⁰, Yuan Gao⁷, Jing Li¹¹, Jianping Li¹², Lei Xu¹³, Qiyong Liu¹⁴

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China; Shandong Academy of Clinical Medicine, Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, 250021, China.
² Shaanxi Key Laboratory for Animal Conservation, Shaanxi Institute of Zoology, Xi'an, 710032, China.
³ State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System (LREIS), Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
⁴ Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases and Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Barcelona, Spain.
⁵ School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, QLD, 4072, Australia.
⁶ MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, United Kingdom.
⁷ State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China.
⁸ Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China.
⁹ College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, 712100, China.
¹⁰ Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China.
¹¹ Division of Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, PR China.
¹² Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES), Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate, Pilot Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China. Electronic address: [email protected].
¹³ State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China. Electronic address: [email protected].
¹⁴ State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China. Electronic address: [email protected].

PMID: 32311903
DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109190

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the relationship between climate variables, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and large outbreaks of dengue in China.

Methods: We constructed ecological niche models (ENMs) to analyse the influence of climate factors on dengue occurrence and predict dengue outbreak areas in China. Furthermore, we formulated a generalised additive model (GAM) to quantify the impact of the EASM on dengue occurrence in mainland China from 1980 to 2016.

Results: Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter had a 62.6% contribution to dengue outbreaks. Southern China including Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and Yunnan provinces are more vulnerable to dengue emergence and resurgence. In addition, we found population density had a 68.7% contribution to dengue widely distribution in China using ENMs. Statistical analysis indicated a dome-shaped association between EASM and dengue outbreak using GAM, with the greatest impact in the South-East of China. Besides, there was a positive nonlinear association between monthly average temperature and dengue occurrence.

Conclusion: We demonstrated the influence of climate factors and East Asian summer monsoon on dengue outbreaks, providing a framework for future studies on the association between climate change and vector-borne diseases.

Keywords: Climate variables; Dengue; EASM; Ecological niche model; Generalised additive model.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

China / epidemiology
Climate Change*
Dengue* / epidemiology
Disease Outbreaks
Humans
Rain
Seasons*