Abstract
To determine the transmission potential of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in Iran in 2020, we estimated the reproduction number as 4.4 (95% CI 3.9-4.9) by using a generalized growth model and 3.5 (95% CI 1.3-8.1) by using epidemic doubling time. The reproduction number decreased to 1.55 after social distancing interventions were implemented.
Keywords:
2019 novel coronavirus disease; COVID-19; Iran; SARS-CoV-2; communicable diseases; coronavirus disease; epidemiology; infections; respiratory infections; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; viruses; zoonoses.
Publication types
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Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
MeSH terms
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Betacoronavirus / growth & development*
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Betacoronavirus / pathogenicity
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COVID-19
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COVID-19 Testing
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Clinical Laboratory Techniques / methods
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Communicable Disease Control / methods
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Communicable Disease Control / organization & administration*
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Coronavirus Infections / diagnosis
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Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
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Coronavirus Infections / prevention & control
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Coronavirus Infections / transmission*
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Humans
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Incidence
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Iran / epidemiology
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Models, Statistical*
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Pandemics* / prevention & control
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Physical Distancing
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Pneumonia, Viral / diagnosis
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Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
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Pneumonia, Viral / prevention & control
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Pneumonia, Viral / transmission*
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SARS-CoV-2
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Time Factors