Predicting outcomes after acute reperfusion therapy for basilar artery occlusion

Background and purpose: Basilar artery occlusion (BAO) leads to high rates of morbidity and mortality, despite successful recanalization. The discordance between flow restoration and long-term functional status clouds clinical decision-making regarding further aggressive care. We sought to develop and validate a practical, prognostic tool for the prediction of 3-month favorable outcome after acute reperfusion therapy for BAO.

Methods: This retrospective, multicenter, observational study was conducted at four high-volume stroke centers in the USA and Europe. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of favorable outcome (90-day modified Rankin scale scores 0-2) and derive a clinically applicable prognostic model (the Pittsburgh Outcomes after Stroke Thrombectomy-Vertebrobasilar (POST-VB) score). The POST-VB score was evaluated and internally validated with regard to calibration and discriminatory ability. External validity was assessed in patient cohorts at three separate centers.

Results: In the derivation cohort of 59 patients, independent predictors of favorable outcome included smaller brainstem infarct volume on post-procedure magnetic resonance imaging (P < 0.01) and younger age (P = 0.01). POST-VB score was calculated as: age + (10 × brainstem infarct volume). POST-VB score demonstrated excellent discriminatory ability [area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.91] and adequate calibration (P = 0.88) in the derivation cohort (Center A). It performed equally well across the three external validation cohorts (Center B, AUC = 0.89; Center C, AUC = 0.78; Center D, AUC = 0.80). Overall, a POST-VB score < 49 was associated with an 88% likelihood of favorable outcome, as compared to 4% with a score ≥ 125.

Conclusions: The POST-VB score effectively predicts 3-month functional outcome following acute reperfusion therapy for BAO and may aid in guiding post-procedural care.