Outcome of patients with acute liver failure awaiting liver transplantation in Japan

Aim: To clarify the outcome and predictive factors in patients with acute liver failure (ALF) awaiting deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT) in Japan.

Methods: Of the DDLT candidates in Japan between 2007 and 2016, 264 adult patients with ALF were retrospectively enrolled in this study. Factors associated with DDLT and waiting-list mortality were assessed using the Cox proportional hazard model. The DDLT and transplant-free survival probabilities were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and the log-rank test.

Results: The waiting-list registration year after the Transplant Law revision in 2010 was a significant factor associated with DDLT. The adjusted hazard ratio indicated that DDLT probability after 2010 was four times higher than that before, and the 28-day cumulative DDLT probability was more than 35%. The median survival time of the entire cohort was 40 days. Multivariate analysis identified the following three factors associated with waiting-list mortality: age, coma grade, and international normalized ratio. The transplant-free survival probabilities were significantly stratified by the number of risks, and patients with all three risks showed extremely poor short-term prognosis (median survival time = 23 days).

Conclusions: The DDLT probability of ALF patients increased after the law revision in 2010; however, patients at high risk of short-term waiting-list mortality might need emergent living donor transplantation.