Background: Italy is classified as a low tuberculosis (TB) incidence country (rate 6.5/100,000 inhabitants). However, the Campania Region Pediatric Reference Centre (CRRC) observed an increase in TB, contemporarily with a rise in migration.Our aim was to investigate trends in TB notification rates, association with migration, and changes in clinical outcomes of children living in Campania.
Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study (January 1, 2009-December 31, 2018), including children <18 years who received diagnosis of TB at the CRRC. Yearly crude TB incidence rates and relative confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated. Two main outcome measures were considered: loss to follow-up and poor clinical outcome, including prolonged or second-line treatment, sequelae, or death.
Results: Overall 146 children (52.1% male; median age, 50 months; interquartile range, 96.33) received a diagnosis of TB. TB incidence rates increased from 0.44 cases (95% CI: 0.16-0.97) per 100,000 inhabitants <18 years of age in 2009 to 1.84 cases (95% CI: 1.15-2.79) in 2018 (P < 0.05) and linearly correlated with the rate of migrants (R = 0.9272; P < 0.0001). Ziehl-Neelsen-positive children had an increased likelihood of poor clinical outcomes (odds ratio, 4.83; 95% CI: 1.28-18.2; P = 0.020). Compared with Italians, foreign children showed a lower likelihood of cure without sequelae (49.3% versus 67.9%; P < 0.001; odds ratio, 0.45; 95% CI: 0.23-0.89; P = 0.02). They accounted for all fatal cases and loss to follow-up.
Conclusion: Pediatric TB rate in Campania increased in the last 10 years in association with the increase in migration. Emphasizing national TB rates may disregard important differences in local infection trends and limit medical awareness about TB. Foreign children may need tailored management programs.