Prostate Cancer Characteristics in the US Preventive Services Task Force Grade D Era: A Single-Center Study and Meta-Analysis

Background: In May 2012, the US Preventive Services Task Force assigned prostate-specific antigen-based screening a grade D recommendation, advising against screening at any age. Our objective was to compare prostate cancer characteristics pre- and post-recommendation with an adjusted analysis of our data and a pooled analysis including other primary data sources.

Methods: We identified all incident prostate cancer diagnoses at our institution from 2007 to 2016. Multivariable log binomial regression was used to determine the relative risk (RR) of metastasis at diagnosis, ≥Gleason Group 4, and high D'Amico risk disease pre- versus post-recommendation. The meta-analysis included primary data studies evaluating these outcomes.

Results: At our institution, 287 (44.6%) and 224 (48.8%) patients were diagnosed in the pre- and post-cohorts. The RR of metastatic disease at diagnosis did not differ between groups (p = 0.224), nor did the risk of high D'Amico category disease (p = 0.089). The risk of ≥Gleason Group 4 was 1.58 times higher post-recommendation (p = 0.007). The pooled risk of ≥Gleason Group 4 disease was 1.5 (p < 0.001) post-recommendation and was 1.29 (p = 0.006) for high D'Amico risk disease.

Conclusions: While the number of metastatic cases did not differ after the recommendation, the risk of high-grade cancers increased at both a local and aggregated level.