Surgery should be considered for patients with metastatic epidural spinal cord compression (MESCC) with a life expectancy of ≥3 months. Given the heterogeneity of the clinical presentation and outcomes, clinical prognostic models (CPMs) can assist in tailoring a personalized medicine approach to optimize surgical decision-making. We aimed to develop and internally validate the first CPM of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and a novel CPM to predict the survival of patients with MESCC treated surgically. Using data from 258 patients (AOSpine North America MESCC study and Nottingham MESCC registry), we created 1-year survival and HRQoL CPMs using a Cox model and logistic regression analysis with manual backward elimination. The outcome measure for HRQoL was the minimal clinical important difference in EuroQol 5-dimension questionnaire scores. Internal validation involved 200 bootstrap iterations, and calibration and discrimination were evaluated. Longer survival was associated with a higher SF-36 physical component score (hazard ratio [HR], 0.96). In contrast, primary tumor other than breast, thyroid, or prostate (unfavorable: HR, 2.57; other: HR, 1.20), organ metastasis (HR, 1.51), male sex (HR, 1.58), and preoperative radiotherapy (HR, 1.53) were not (c-statistic, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.73). Karnofsky performance status <70% (odds ratio [OR], 2.50), living in North America (OR, 4.06), SF-36 physical component score (OR, 0.95) and SF-36 mental component score (OR, 0.96) were associated with the likelihood of achieving a minimal clinical important difference improvement in the EuroQol 5-Dimension Questionnaire score at 3 months (c-statistic, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.79). The calibration for both CPMs was very good. We developed and internally validated the first CPMs of survival and HRQoL at 3 months postoperatively in patients with MESCC using the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) guidelines. A web-based calculator is available (available at: http://spine-met.com) to assist with clinical decision-making.
Keywords: Clinical prognostic model; Metastatic epidural spinal cord compression; Quality of life; Surgery; Survival.
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