This study aimed to evaluate the predictors of very late recurrence of atrial fibrillation (VLRAF) after an initial AF catheter ablation (CA) by analyzing the follow-up Holter electrocardiogram. We retrospectively studied patients (n = 253, mean age: 66 years, woman: 30%, paroxysmal AF: 73%) without recurrence of AF within 12 months and the use of antiarrhythmic drugs. In the Holter electrocardiogram analysis, the atrial premature complexes (APCs) burden, the profile of the APCs run and prematurity index of the APCs were evaluated. Fifty-one patients (20%) had VLRAF during the follow-up period (mean follow up: 46 months). Patients with VLRAF had a significantly greater APCs burden (0.318% [0.084 to 1.405] vs 0.132% [0.051 to 0.461], p = 0.022), longer number of APCs run (5 [3 to 11] vs 4 [0 to 7], p = 0.019), and shorter minimum prematurity index of the APCs (47 ± 7 vs 51 ± 6, p = 0.001) than those without VLRAF. The optimal cutoff value for the APCs burden, maximum number of APCs run, and minimum prematurity index of the APCs to predict VLRAF was 0.159%, 10, and 48%, respectively. The minimum prematurity index of the APCs (≤48%) was significantly associated with VLRAF in the multivariate analysis. In conclusion, the minimum prematurity index of the APCs (≤48%) at 12 months after CA was shown to be an independent predictor of VLRAF in patients without antiarrhythmic drugs. Although the index is a very simple parameter automatically calculated by analysis software, it can be an important index for following patients after CA over the long-term.
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