The impact of demonetisation on the utilisation of hospital services, patient outcomes and finances: a multicentre observational study from India

Background: This study assessed trends in healthcare utilisation in relation to the implementation of an economic policy in India wherein 500 and 1000 rupee notes were demonetised.

Methods: In this ambidirectional observational study of private not-for-profit hospitals, data on hospital outpatient and inpatient numbers, surgeries, emergency department (ED) visits, obstetric admissions and mortality were obtained for pre-demonetisation (September/October 2016), early (November/December 2016) and late demonetisation (January/February 2017), and post-demonetisation periods (March/April 2017) and compared with the control period (2015-2016) from 11 centres (three tertiary hospitals; eight secondary). A Bayesian regression analysis was performed to adjust for seasonal (winter) effect. Monthly financial data, including the proportion of cash versus non-cash transactions, were collected.

Findings: Overall, at the pooled all-hospital level, Bayesian analysis showed non-significant increase in outpatients (535.4, 95% CI -7097 to 8116) and decrease in deaths (-6.3 per 1000 inpatients, 95% CI -15.45 to 2.75) and a significant decrease in inpatients (-145.6, 95% CI -286.4 to -10.63) during demonetisation. Analysis at the level of secondary and tertiary hospitals showed a variable effect. For individual hospitals, after adjusting for the seasonal effect, some hospitals observed a significant reduction in outpatient (n=2) and inpatient (n=3) numbers, ED visits (n=4) and mortality (n=2) during demonetisation, while others reported significantly increased outpatient numbers (n=3) and ED visits (n=2). Deliveries remained unchanged during demonetisation in the hospitals that provided the service. There was no significant reduction in hospital incomes during demonetisation. In tertiary hospitals, there was a significant increase in non-cash component of transactions from 35% to 60% (p=0.02) that persisted beyond the demonetisation period.

Conclusions: The effect of demonetisation on healthcare utilisation was variable. Some hospitals witnessed a significant reduction in utilisation in some areas, while others reported increased utilisation. There was an increase in non-cash transactions that persisted beyond the period of demonetisation.