Association of Mammography Screening With a Reduction in Breast Cancer Mortality: A Modeling Study Using Population-Based Data From 2 French Departments

Meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials that started from 1963 to 1991 reported a decrease of breast cancer mortality, associated with mammography screening. However, the effectiveness of population-based screening programs conducted currently might have changed due to the higher effectiveness of treatments for late-stage cancers and the better diagnostic performance of mammography. The main objective of this study was to predict the reduction of breast cancer mortality associated with mammography screening in the current French setting. We compared breast cancer mortality in 2 simulated cohorts of women, which differed from each other solely in a 70% biennial participation in screening from 50 to 74 years old. The microsimulation model used for predictions was calibrated with incidence rates of breast cancer according to stage that were observed in Isère and Loire-Atlantique departments, France, in 2007-2013. The model predicted a decrease of breast cancer mortality associated with mammography screening of 18% (95% CI: 5, 31) and 17% (95% CI: 3, 29) for models calibrated with data from Isère and Loire-Atlantique departments, respectively. Our results highlight the interest in biennial mammography screening from ages 50 to 74 years old to decrease breast cancer mortality in the current setting, despite improvements in treatment effectiveness.