Risk Score Model for Liver Transplant Outcomes after Preoperative Locoregional Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose: The role of preoperative locoregional therapy (LRT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) before liver transplantation (LT) remains unclear. Moreover, LRT in the setting of living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) merits further exploration. The objective of the current study was to determine risk factors for poor outcomes after LDLT in patients who received locoregional therapy (LRT).

Methods: We reviewed patients (n = 46) who underwent LDLT after LRT. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine independent predictors of recurrence-free survival (RFS). Risk scores were developed to define prognostic groups.

Results: Median tumor size was 3.7 (1.2-12) cm and tumor number was 1 (1-6). Macrovascular invasion was seen in 10/46 (21.7%) patients. There was a significant difference in 5-year RFS with > 3 tumor nodules (P = 0.005), tumors outside University of California San Francisco criteria (P = 0.03), bilobar disease (P = 0.002), AFP > 600 ng/ml (P = 0.006), and poor response to LRT (P = 0.007). On multivariate analysis, bilobar disease (HR = 2.9, P = 0.01), AFP > 600 ng/ml (HR = 2.3 P = 0.008), and poor response to LRT (HR = 2, P = 0.02) were predictors of 5-year RFS. The 5-year RFS in low risk (score = 0), intermediate risk (score = 1-3), and high risk (score = 4-7) groups was 86%, 76%, and 9% (P < 0.0001). There was no recurrence seen in 4/4 (100%) patients with macrovascular invasion in the low-intermediate risk group. The 5-year RFS in the low-intermediate risk group within and outside Milan criteria was 100% and 74% (P = 0.1).

Conclusions: LDLT can provide excellent long-term RFS in patients after preoperative LRT in the low and intermediate risk groups.