Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prevalence and prediction in a high-risk lung cancer screening population

BMC Pulm Med. 2020 Nov 16;20(1):300. doi: 10.1186/s12890-020-01344-y.

Abstract

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is an underdiagnosed condition sharing risk factors with lung cancer. Lung cancer screening may provide an opportunity to improve COPD diagnosis. Using Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer (PanCan) study data, the present study sought to determine the following: 1) What is the prevalence of COPD in a lung cancer screening population? 2) Can a model based on clinical and screening low-dose CT scan data predict the likelihood of COPD?

Methods: The single arm PanCan study recruited current or former smokers age 50-75 who had a calculated risk of lung cancer of at least 2% over 6 years. A baseline health questionnaire, spirometry, and low-dose CT scan were performed. CT scans were assessed by a radiologist for extent and distribution of emphysema. With spirometry as the gold standard, logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with COPD.

Results: Among 2514 recruited subjects, 1136 (45.2%) met spirometry criteria for COPD, including 833 of 1987 (41.9%) of those with no prior diagnosis, 53.8% of whom had moderate or worse disease. In a multivariate model, age, current smoking status, number of pack-years, presence of dyspnea, wheeze, participation in a high-risk occupation, and emphysema extent on LDCT were all statistically associated with COPD, while the overall model had poor discrimination (c-statistic = 0.627 (95% CI of 0.607 to 0.650). The lowest and the highest risk decile in the model predicted COPD risk of 27.4 and 65.3%.

Conclusions: COPD had a high prevalence in a lung cancer screening population. While a risk model had poor discrimination, all deciles of risk had a high prevalence of COPD, and spirometry could be considered as an additional test in lung cancer screening programs.

Trial registration: (Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00751660 , registered September 12, 2008).

Keywords: CT scan; Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; Lung cancer; Screening; Spirometry.

Publication types

  • Clinical Trial

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Canada / epidemiology
  • Early Detection of Cancer
  • Emphysema / diagnostic imaging
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Lung Neoplasms / diagnostic imaging*
  • Male
  • Mass Screening / methods*
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / diagnosis*
  • Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / epidemiology
  • Pulmonary Emphysema / complications
  • Risk Factors
  • Smoking / adverse effects*
  • Spirometry
  • Tomography, X-Ray Computed

Associated data

  • ClinicalTrials.gov/NCT00751660