Sex-specific temporal trends in ambulatory heart failure incidence, mortality and hospitalisation in Ontario, Canada from 1994 to 2013: a population-based cohort study

Objectives: To examine the temporal trends in mortality and heart failure (HF) hospitalisation in ambulatory patients following a new diagnosis of HF.

Design: Retrospective cohort study SETTING: Outpatient PARTICIPANTS: Ontario residents who were diagnosed with HF in an outpatient setting between 1994 and 2013.

Primary and secondary outcome measures: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 1 year of diagnosis and the secondary outcome was HF hospitalisation within 1 year. Risks of mortality and hospitalisation were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the relative hazard of death was assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models.

Results: A total of 352 329 patients were studied (50% female). During the study period, there was a greater decline in age standardised 1-year mortality rates (AMR) in men (33%) than in women (19%). Specifically, female AMR at 1 year was 10.4% (95% CI 9.1% to 12.0%) in 1994 and 8.5% (95% CI 7.5% to 9.5%) in 2013, and male AMR at 1 year was 12.3% (95% CI 11.1% to 13.7%) in 1994 and 8.3% (95% CI 7.5% to 9.1%) in 2013. Conversely, age standardised HF hospitalisation rates declined in men (11.4% (95% CI 10.1% to 12.9%) in 1994 and 9.1% (95% CI 8.2% to 10.1%) in 2013) but remained unchanged in women (9.7% (95% CI 8.3% to 11.3%) in 1994 and 9.8% (95% CI 8.6% to 11.0%) in 2013).

Conclusion: Among patients with HF over a 20-year period, there was a greater improvement in the prognosis of men compared with women. Further research should focus on the determinants of this disparity and ways to reduce this gap in outcomes.