Purpose: To predict overall survival of patients receiving stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (ES-NSCLC), we developed a radiomic model that integrates risk of death estimates and changes based on pre- and posttreatment computed tomography (CT) scans. We hypothesize this innovation will improve our ability to stratify patients into various oncologic outcomes with greater accuracy.
Methods and materials: Two cohorts of patients with ES-NSCLC uniformly treated with SBRT (a median dose of 50 Gy in 4-5 fractions) were studied. Prediction models were built on a discovery cohort of 100 patients with treatment planning CT scans, and then were applied to a separate validation cohort of 60 patients with pre- and posttreatment CT scans for evaluating their performance.
Results: Prediction models achieved a c-index up to 0.734 in predicting survival outcomes of the validation cohort. The integration of the pretreatment risk of survival measures (risk-high vs risk-low) and changes (risk-increase vs risk-decrease) in risk of survival measures between the pretreatment and posttreatment scans further stratified the patients into 4 subgroups (risk: high, increase; risk: high, decrease; risk: low, increase; risk: low, decrease) with significant difference (χ2 = 18.549, P = .0003, log-rank test). There was also a significant difference between the risk-increase and risk-decrease groups (χ2 = 6.80, P = .0091, log-rank test). In addition, a significant difference (χ2 = 7.493, P = .0062, log-rank test) was observed between the risk-high and risk-low groups obtained based on the pretreatment risk of survival measures.
Conclusion: The integration of risk of survival measures estimated from pre- and posttreatment CT scans can help differentiate patients with good expected survival from those who will do more poorly following SBRT. The analysis of these radiomics-based longitudinal risk measures may help identify patients with early-stage NSCLC who will benefit from adjuvant treatment after lung SBRT, such as immunotherapy.
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