The modified shuttle test as a predictor of risk for hospitalization in youths with cystic fibrosis: A two-year follow-up study

Background: Patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) present exercise intolerance and episodes of pulmonary exacerbations. This study aimed to evaluate the association of the distance covered on the modified shuttle test (MST), as well as other clinical variables (anthropometry, chronic colonization by Pseudomonas aeruginosa, lung function), with the risk of hospitalization for pulmonary exacerbation.

Methods: Cohort study including CF patients older than 6 years, from two specialized CF centers. All patients underwent a MST and a lung function test at the time of inclusion. Demographic, anthropometric and clinical data were collected. Free time until the first hospitalization, total days of hospitalization and use of antibiotics during the two years of follow-up were recorded.

Results: Sixty-seven patients with a mean (SD) age of 12.4 (5.2) years and forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV₁) of 78.7% (22.4) were included. The mean distance covered (m) in the MST was 775.6 (255.7) (73.4 ± 19.5% of predicted). The distance achieved (MST) was considered as the main independent variable to predict the risk of hospitalization (Cox HR 0.97, p = 0.029). Patients who walked a distance of less than 80% of predicted in the MST showed an increase of 3.9 (95%CI 1.0-15.3) in the relative risk for hospitalization and significantly higher total number of days of hospitalization (p = 0.022).

Conclusion: There is an association between the distance covered in the MST and the risk of hospitalization in youths with CF. Patients with reduced exercise capacity presented a 3.9 times increase in the relative risk for hospitalization due to pulmonary exacerbation.