Derivation and Validation of a Total Fruit and Vegetable Intake Prediction Model to Identify Targets for Biomarker Discovery Using the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey

Background: Dietary assessments in research and clinical settings are largely reliant on self-reported questionnaires. It is acknowledged that these are subject to measurement error and biases and that objective approaches would be beneficial. Dietary biomarkers have been purported as a complementary approach to improve the accuracy of dietary assessments. Tentative biomarkers have been identified for many individual fruits and vegetables (FVs), but an objective total FV intake assessment tool has not been established.

Objectives: To derive and validate a prediction model of total FV intake (TFVpred) to inform future biomarker studies.

Methods: Data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) were used for this analysis. A modeling group (MG) consisting of participants aged >11 years from the NDNS years 5-6 was created (n = 1746). Intake data for 96 FVs were analyzed by stepwise regression to derive a model that satisfied 3 selection criteria: SEE ≤80, R2 >0.7, and ≤10 predictors. The TFVpred model was validated using comparative data from a validation group (VG) created from the NDNS years 7-8 (n = 1865). Pearson's correlation coefficients were assessed between observed and predicted values in the MG and VG. Bland-Altman plots were used to assess agreement between TFVpred estimates and total FV intake.

Results: A TFVpred model, comprised of tomatoes, apples, carrots, bananas, pears, strawberries, and onions, satisfied the selection criteria (R2 = 0.761; SEE = 78.81). Observed and predicted total FV intake values were positively correlated in the MG (r = 0.872; P < 0.001; R2 = 0.761) and the VG (r = 0.838; P < 0.001; R2 = 0.702). In the MG and VG, 95.0% and 94.9%, respectively, of TFVpred model residuals were within the limits of agreement.

Conclusions: Intakes of a concise FV list can be used to predict total FV intakes in a UK population. The individual FVs included in the TFVpred model present targets for biomarker discovery aimed at objectively assessing total FV intake.