Methodological synthesis of Bayesian phylodynamics, HIV-TRACE, and GEE: HIV-1 transmission epidemiology in a racially/ethnically diverse Southern U.S. context

Sci Rep. 2021 Feb 8;11(1):3325. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-82673-8.

Abstract

This study introduces an innovative methodological approach to identify potential drivers of structuring HIV-1 transmission clustering patterns between different subpopulations in the culturally and racially/ethnically diverse context of Houston, TX, the largest city in the Southern United States. Using 6332 HIV-1 pol sequences from persons newly diagnosed with HIV during the period 2010-2018, we reconstructed HIV-1 transmission clusters, using the HIV-TRAnsmission Cluster Engine (HIV-TRACE); inferred demographic and risk parameters on HIV-1 transmission dynamics by jointly estimating viral transmission rates across racial/ethnic, age, and transmission risk groups; and modeled the degree of network connectivity by using generalized estimating equations (GEE). Our results indicate that Hispanics/Latinos are most vulnerable to the structure of transmission clusters and serve as a bridge population, acting as recipients of transmissions from Whites (3.0 state changes/year) and from Blacks (2.6 state changes/year) as well as sources of transmissions to Whites (1.8 state changes/year) and to Blacks (1.2 state changes/year). There were high rates of transmission and high network connectivity between younger and older Hispanics/Latinos as well as between younger and older Blacks. Prevention and intervention efforts are needed for transmission clusters that involve younger racial/ethnic minorities, in particular Hispanic/Latino youth, to reduce onward transmission of HIV in Houston.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Ethnicity*
  • HIV Infections* / epidemiology
  • HIV Infections* / ethnology
  • HIV Infections* / transmission
  • HIV-1*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Racial Groups*
  • Texas / epidemiology
  • Texas / ethnology