Hyocholic acid (HCA) is a major bile acid (BA) species in the BA pool of pigs, a species known for its exceptional resistance to spontaneous development of diabetic phenotypes. HCA and its derivatives are also present in human blood and urine. We investigate whether human HCA profiles can predict the development of metabolic disorders. We find in the first cohort (n = 1107) that both obesity and diabetes are associated with lower serum concentrations of HCA species. A separate cohort study (n = 91) validates this finding and further reveals that individuals with pre-diabetes are associated with lower levels of HCA species in feces. Serum HCA levels increase in the patients after gastric bypass surgery (n = 38) and can predict the remission of diabetes two years after surgery. The results are replicated in two independent, prospective cohorts (n = 132 and n = 207), where serum HCA species are found to be strong predictors for metabolic disorders in 5 and 10 years, respectively. These findings underscore the association of HCA species with diabetes, and demonstrate the feasibility of using HCA profiles to assess the future risk of developing metabolic abnormalities.