Expanding the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score for Predicting Diabetes Incidence in People Living with HIV

This study investigated whether the predictive ability of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) can be improved among people with HIV by adding a marker of insulin resistance. In this longitudinal analysis of the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study and the Women's Interagency HIV Study, HIV-positive and HIV-negative participants without prevalent diabetes were included. FINDRISC score and the Homeostasis Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR) were calculated at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine associations between baseline risk scores and time to incident diabetes (first self-report of diabetes medication use). Model discrimination (Uno's c-statistic) and calibration (observed vs. cumulative probability of diabetes) were assessed for FINDRISC, HOMA-IR, and combined FINDRISC and HOMA-IR. Overall, 2,527 men (1,299 HIV-positive and 1,228 HIV-negative, median age = 44) and 2,446 women (1,841 HIV-positive and 605 HIV-negative, median age = 41) were included. Over 47,040 person-years of follow-up, diabetes incidence rates per 1,000 person-years were 9.5 in HIV-positive men, 7.1 in HIV-negative men, 14.5 in HIV-positive women, and 15.1 in HIV-negative women. FINDRISC discrimination (HIV-positive men c = 0.64 [0.55, 0.74], HIV-negative men c = 0.74 [0.68, 0.79], HIV-positive women c = 0.68 [0.64, 0.71], and HIV-negative women c = 0.73 [0.66, 0.79]) was significantly better than that of HOMA-IR. FINDRISC was better calibrated than HOMA-IR in each of the four groups. Adding HOMA-IR did not improve FINDRISC discrimination/calibration. Diabetes risk prediction with FINDRISC was suboptimal in men and women with HIV, and its performance was not improved with addition of HOMA-IR. The optimal method for identifying people living with HIV at-risk for diabetes is yet to be identified.