Prognostic Model to Predict Overall Survival for Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Treated With Chemotherapy Combined With Concurrent Radiation Therapy to the Primary Tumor: Analysis From Two Prospective Studies

Purpose: The role of radiotherapy, in addition to chemotherapy, has not been thoroughly determined in metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The purpose of the study was to investigate the prognostic factors and to establish a model for the prediction of overall survival (OS) in metastatic NSCLC patients who received chemotherapy combined with the radiation therapy to the primary tumor.

Methods: The study retrospectively reviewed 243 patients with metastatic NSCLC in two prospective studies. A prognostic model was established based on the results of the Cox regression analysis.

Results: Multivariate analysis showed that being male, Karnofsky Performance Status score < 80, the number of chemotherapy cycles <4, hemoglobin level ≤120 g/L, the count of neutrophils greater than 5.8 ×10⁹/L, and the count of platelets greater than 220 ×10⁹/L independently predicted worse OS. According to the number of risk factors, patients were further divided into one of three risk groups: those having ≤ 2 risk factors were scored as the low-risk group, those having 3 risk factors were scored as the moderate-risk group, and those having ≥ 4 risk factors were scored as the high-risk group. In the low-risk group, 1-year OS is 67.7%, 2-year OS is 32.1%, and 3-year OS is 19.3%; in the moderate-risk group, 1-year OS is 59.6%, 2-year OS is 18.0%, and 3-year OS is 7.9%; the corresponding OS rates for the high-risk group were 26.2%, 7.9%, and 0% (P<0.001) respectively.

Conclusion: Metastatic NSCLC patients treated with chemotherapy in combination with thoracic radiation may be classified as low-risk, moderate-risk, or high-risk group using six independent prognostic factors. This prognostic model may help design the study and develop the plans of individualized treatment.