Pathologic upstaging in resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma: Risk factors and impact on survival

J Surg Oncol. 2021 Jul;124(1):79-87. doi: 10.1002/jso.26481. Epub 2021 Apr 9.

Abstract

Background: Clinical and pathologic staging determine treatment of pancreatic cancer. Clinical stage has been shown to underestimate final pathologic stage in pancreatic cancer, resulting in upstaging.

Methods: National Cancer Database was used to identify clinical stage I pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Univariate, multivariable logistic regression, and Cox proportional hazard ratio were used to determine differences between upstaged and stage concordant patients.

Results: Upstaging was seen in 80.2% of patients. Factors found to be significantly associated with upstaging included pancreatic head tumors (OR 2.56), high-grade histology (OR 1.74), elevated Ca 19-9 (OR 2.09), and clinical stage T2 (OR 1.99). Upstaging was associated with a 45% increased risk of mortality compared to stage concordant disease (HR 1.44, p < .001).

Conclusion: A majority of clinical stage I pancreatic cancer is upstaged after resection. Factors including tumor location, grade, Ca 19-9, and tumor size can help identify those at high risk for upstaging.

Keywords: National Cancer Database; pancreatic adenocarcinoma; stage migration; staging; upstaging.

MeSH terms

  • Adenocarcinoma / mortality
  • Adenocarcinoma / pathology*
  • Adenocarcinoma / surgery*
  • Aged
  • Databases, Factual
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Neoplasm Staging
  • Pancreatectomy*
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / mortality
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / pathology*
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / surgery*
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Risk Factors
  • Survival Rate