Using the power law model to predict the long-term persistence and duration of detectable hepatitis A antibody after receipt of hepatitis A vaccine (VAQTA™)

VAQTA™ (Hepatitis A Vaccine, inactivated [HAVi]; Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, USA) is currently licensed for prevention of disease caused by hepatitis A virus in persons ≥12 months of age. This report summarizes statistical models developed to evaluate the long-term persistence and duration of detectable hepatitis A antibody (total antibody levels with no distinction on class) after receipt of HAVi in healthy children and adolescents (V251-023 and V251-035) and in healthy adults (V251-034). The statistical models presented, conducted separately for each of the three studies, are based on models that have been used in the literature to estimate the duration of antibody to protect against human papillomavirus (HPV) disease. In the absence of observed study data on hepatitis A antibody persistence for vaccine recipients over several decades, an extrapolation from a kinetic model of antibody decay was used to estimate the duration of detectable antibody. Extrapolation of observed antibody titers from postvaccination, Year 2.5-3.5, Year 5-6, and Year 10 in 165 children and adolescents who received HAVi at Day 0 and Week 24 in V251-023 suggests that detectable levels of antibody may persist after the second dose for many years. This model suggests that 25 to 50 years Postdose 1 in a two-dose series of HAVi, 99.4% of the study population will have detectable levels of hepatitis A antibody.