County-Level Socioeconomic and Political Predictors of Distancing for COVID-19

Introduction: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have implemented social distancing measures to slow viral transmission. This work aims to determine the extent to which socioeconomic and political conditions have shaped community-level distancing behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially how these dynamics have evolved over time.

Methods: This study used daily data on physical distancing from 15‒17 million cell phone users in 3,037 U.S. counties. County-level changes in the average distance traveled per person were estimated relative to prepandemic weeks as a proxy for physical distancing. Pooled ordinary least squares regressions estimated the association between physical distancing and a variety of county-level demographic, socioeconomic, and political characteristics by week from March 9, 2020 to January 17, 2021. Data were collected until January 2021, at which point the analyses were finalized.

Results: Lower per capita income and greater Republican orientation were associated with significantly reduced physical distancing throughout nearly all the study period. These associations persisted after adjusting for a variety of county-level demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Other county-level characteristics, such as the shares of Black and Hispanic residents, were associated with reduced distancing at various points during the study period.

Conclusions: These results highlight the importance of dynamic socioeconomic and political gradients in preventive behavior and imply the need for nimble policy responses.