Cost-Effectiveness of Prophylactic Cranial Irradiation Versus MRI Surveillance for Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: Owing to conflicting prospective data, controversy exists regarding prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC). We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of PCI versus magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) surveillance for patients with ES-SCLC based on currently available evidence and in the context of the proposed Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services alternative payment model.

Methods and materials: A Markov state transition model was constructed to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing MRI surveillance alone with PCI for ES-SCLC. Clinical parameters were obtained from clinical trial data, and cost data were based on 2019 Medicare reimbursement. Strategies were compared using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with effectiveness in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and evaluated with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY gained. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to consider model uncertainty.

Results: In the base-case scenario, PCI was not cost-effective in this model, with an ICER of $168,456 per QALY gained compared with MRI surveillance alone, assuming that overall survival was 10 months for MRI surveillance alone and 12.5 months for PCI. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that results were most sensitive to the variation of overall survival and cognitive decline rates between the 2 groups. In a scenario analysis in which all patients received hippocampal-avoidance PCI, the model results became nearly cost-effective with PCI.

Conclusions: PCI was not found to be cost-effective within this model compared with MRI surveillance alone, owing to the neurocognition decline effect of PCI based on available evidence. Hippocampal-avoidance PCI may be a potential cost-effective strategy for ES-SCLC, with confirmation expected after an ongoing prospective clinical trial (The Southwest Oncolology Group MRI Brain Surveillance Alone Versus MRI Surveillance And Prophylactic Cranial Irradiation [MAVERICK]), which includes assessments of cognitive function.