Prostate-specific antigen density during dutasteride treatment for 1 year predicts the presence of prostate cancer in benign prostatic hyperplasia after the first negative biopsy (PREDICT study)

Objectives: To prospectively evaluate the detection rate of prostate cancer, and to identify the risk factors of prostate cancer detection after a 1-year administration of dutasteride and first negative prostate biopsy.

Methods: Patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia who presented high prostate-specific antigen levels after the first negative prostate biopsy were administered 0.5 mg dutasteride daily for 1 year. They underwent a repeat prostate biopsy after 1 year. The primary end-point was the detection rate of prostate cancer. The secondary end-point was the ability of prostate-specific antigen kinetics to predict prostate cancer detection. Prostate-specific antigen was measured before the initial prostate biopsy and at 6, 9 and 12 months after starting dutasteride. Patients were classified into a prostate cancer and a non-prostate cancer group.

Results: Prostate cancer was detected in 15 of 149 participants (10.1%). The total prostate-specific antigen change between the prostate cancer and non-prostate cancer group at 1 year was significantly different (P = 0.002). Although prostate-specific antigen levels at baseline did not significantly differ between study groups (P = 0.102), prostate-specific antigen levels at 6, 9 and 12 months were significantly different (P = 0.002, P = 0.001 and P < 0.001, respectively). The mean reduction rate of prostate-specific antigen density between the prostate cancer and non-prostate cancer group at 1 year was significantly different (-4.25 ± 76.5% vs -38.0 ± 28.7%, P = 0.001). Using a multivariate analysis, a >10% increase of prostate-specific antigen density at 1 year post-dutasteride treatment was the only predictive risk factor for prostate cancer after the first negative prostate biopsy (odds ratio 11.238, 95% confidence interval 3.112-40.577, P < 0.001).

Conclusion: In the present study cohort, >10% increase in prostate-specific antigen density represented the only significant predictive risk factor for prostate cancer diagnosis in patients with elevated prostate-specific antigen after the first negative prostate biopsy.