Predictors of Change in Mental Health during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background: Cross-sectional data suggest that depression, anxiety, and stress have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, longitudinal research is needed to test changes in mental health and determine factors that contribute to change. The purpose of this study was to compare anxiety, depression, and stress pre-pandemic to during the pandemic within the same sample and identify predictors of change (i.e., disease threat, changes to daily life, social isolation, financial worries).

Method: Three national samples of U.S. adults were recruited through an online platform (Amazon's Mechanical Turk). Participants completed online surveys pre-pandemic (September - December 2019) and during the pandemic(April - June 2020).

Results: Across the three samples, mini-meta analyses revealed significant increases in anxiety and stress (Cohen's ds = 0.17, 0.16, respectively; ps < 0.01). Financial concern and effects of COVID-19 on daily life predicted higher levels of depression, anxiety, and stress during the pandemic across all three samples (ds = 0.24, 0.40, and 0.40, respectively; ps < 0.001).

Limitations: Response rates for follow-up surveys were relatively low, with some noted differences between those who did and did not complete both surveys.

Conclusions: Significant increases in anxiety and stress were observed across three samples of U.S. adults from before to during the COVID-19 pandemic. Financial concern and effects of the pandemic on daily life emerged as the most consistent predictors of psychological distress across these samples.