Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States

Bingyi Yang; Angkana T Huang; Bernardo Garcia-Carreras; William E Hart; Andrea Staid; Matt D T Hitchings; Elizabeth C Lee; Chanelle J Howe; Kyra H Grantz; Amy Wesolowksi; Joseph Chadi Lemaitre; Susan Rattigan; Carlos Moreno; Brooke A Borgert; Celeste Dale; Nicole Quigley; Andrew Cummings; Alizée McLorg; Kaelene LoMonaco; Sarah Schlossberg; Drew Barron-Kraus; Harrison Shrock; UFCOVID Interventions Team; Justin Lessler; Carl D Laird; Derek A T Cummings

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-23865-8

Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States

Nat Commun. 2021 Jun 11;12(1):3560. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-23865-8.

Authors

Bingyi Yang^{1

2}, Angkana T Huang^{1

2}, Bernardo Garcia-Carreras^{1

2}, William E Hart³, Andrea Staid³, Matt D T Hitchings^{1

2}, Elizabeth C Lee⁴, Chanelle J Howe⁵, Kyra H Grantz⁴, Amy Wesolowksi⁴, Joseph Chadi Lemaitre⁶, Susan Rattigan^{1

2}, Carlos Moreno^{1

2}, Brooke A Borgert^{1

2}, Celeste Dale¹, Nicole Quigley¹, Andrew Cummings⁷, Alizée McLorg⁸, Kaelene LoMonaco¹, Sarah Schlossberg⁹, Drew Barron-Kraus¹, Harrison Shrock¹; UFCOVID Interventions Team; Justin Lessler¹⁰, Carl D Laird¹¹, Derek A T Cummings^{12

13}

Collaborators

UFCOVID Interventions Team:
Stephanie Khoury, Meenal Indra, Hung-Leong Yau, Ben Cummings, Peter Giannas, Martha-Grace McLean, Ken Hubbard, Camazia Saunders, Caroline Weldon, Caroline Phillips, David Rosenbaum, Dianelys Tabla

Affiliations

¹ Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
² Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
³ Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA.
⁴ Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
⁵ Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, RI, USA.
⁶ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
⁷ Department of Mathematics, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY, USA.
⁸ Department of Public Health, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY, USA.
⁹ Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA.
¹⁰ Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA. [email protected].
¹¹ Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA. [email protected].
¹² Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. [email protected].
¹³ Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. [email protected].

Abstract

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (R_eff) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions that included school and leisure activities closure and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median R_eff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median R_eff 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-1.39) or face masks (median R_eff 0.97, 95% CI 0.58-1.39). While direct causal effects of interventions remain unclear, our results suggest that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others.

Publication types

Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

Basic Reproduction Number
COVID-19 / epidemiology
COVID-19 / prevention & control*
COVID-19 / transmission*
Disease Transmission, Infectious / prevention & control
Health Policy*
Humans
Infection Control / methods*
Leisure Activities
Masks
Natural History
Pandemics
Quarantine
SARS-CoV-2 / isolation & purification
Schools
United States / epidemiology