Trends, Mechanisms, and Racial/Ethnic Differences of Tuberculosis Incidence in the US-Born Population Aged 50 Years or Older in the United States

Background: Older age is a risk factor for tuberculosis (TB) in low incidence settings. Using data from the US National TB Surveillance System and American Community Survey, we estimated trends and racial/ethnic differences in TB incidence among US-born cohorts aged ≥50 years.

Methods: In total, 42 000 TB cases among US-born persons ≥50 years were reported during 2001-2019. We used generalized additive regression models to decompose the effects of birth cohort and age on TB incidence rates, stratified by sex and race/ethnicity. Using genotype-based estimates of recent transmission (available 2011-2019), we implemented additional models to decompose incidence trends by estimated recent versus remote infection.

Results: Estimated incidence rates declined with age, for the overall cohort and most sex and race/ethnicity strata. Average annual percentage declines flattened for older individuals, from 8.80% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.34-9.23) in 51-year-olds to 4.51% (95% CI 3.87-5.14) in 90-year-olds. Controlling for age, incidence rates were lower for more recent birth cohorts, dropping 8.79% (95% CI 6.13-11.26) on average between successive cohort years. Incidence rates were substantially higher for racial/ethnic minorities, and these inequalities persisted across all birth cohorts. Rates from recent infection declined at approximately 10% per year as individuals aged. Rates from remote infection declined more slowly with age, and this annual percentage decline approached zero for the oldest individuals.

Conclusions: TB rates were highest for racial/ethnic minorities and for the earliest birth cohorts and declined with age. For the oldest individuals, annual percentage declines were low, and most cases were attributed to remote infection.