CEUS detection of biliary ischaemia during the first 4 weeks after liver transplantation predicts non-anastomotic biliary stricture

Background: Biliary ischaemia is an important factor in the pathogenesis of non-anastomotic biliary stricture (NAS) after liver transplantation (LT). Contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) can be used to detect biliary ischaemia, but no study has examined the utility of CEUS in predicting NAS.

Objective: To evaluate whether repeated CEUS as a non-invasive method of biliary ischaemia can identify NAS.

Methods: Consecutive LT patients who underwent CEUS examinations at 1-4 weeks after LT from September 2012 to December 2015 at our institution were included. The CEUS images and clinical data were analysed.

Results: Among 116 eligible LT patients, 39 (33.6%) were diagnosed with NAS within 1 year after LT. The patients with NAS had a significantly higher CEUS score at weeks 2-4 (all P < 0.05) and a higher slope of CEUS score progression (0.480 vs -0.044, P < 0.001). The accuracy of CEUS in identifying NAS improved over time after LT, reaching its maximum at week 4, with a sensitivity of 66.7%, a specificity of 87.9%, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 75.9%, a negative predictive value (NPV) of 82.3%, and an accuracy of 80.2%in the full cohort when a CEUS score≥3 was used as the cut-off. Multivariate analysis identified gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), alanine transaminase (ALT) and the CEUS score at week 4 as independent predictors of NAS. In the task of identifying NAS, an NAS score combining the above 3 variables at week 4 showed areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88 (95%CI, 0.78-0.99) in the estimation group (n = 60) and 0.82 (95%CI, 0.69-0.96) in the validation group (n = 56). An NAS score cut-off of 0.396 identified 87.2%of NAS cases in the estimation group, with a PPV of 93.3%; and 75.0%of NAS cases in the validation group, with a PPV of 58.8%.

Conclusions: CEUS examination during the first 4 weeks is useful in assessing the risk of NAS within 1 year after LT. In particular, an NAS score combining the CEUS score, GGT level, and ALT level at week 4 can be used to accurately predict the risk of NAS in LT patients.