Long-term cumulative incidence of metachronous advanced colorectal neoplasia after colonoscopy and a novel risk factor: a cohort study

Background and aim: Long-term cumulative incidence of and risk factors for metachronous advanced colorectal neoplasia, including both advanced colorectal adenoma (≥10 mm, or with villous or high-grade dysplasia) and colorectal cancer, are critical for surveillance strategies. The aim of this study was to determine the cumulative incidence of metachronous advanced colorectal neoplasia and its risk factors.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 6720 consecutive individuals who underwent general health check-ups and colonoscopy. Colorectal adenomas at initial colonoscopy were categorized as low-risk (1-2 small [<10 mm] tubular adenomas) or high-risk adenoma (≥3 tubular adenomas of any size; at least one adenoma ≥10 mm; or villous adenoma or adenoma with high-grade dysplasia). Kaplan-Meier estimates and hazard ratio by Cox-proportional hazard regression were calculated.

Results: The cumulative incidence (95% confidence interval [CI]) of metachronous advanced colorectal neoplasia at 5 and 10 years was 5.7% [4.6-7.1], and 11% [8.9-14] in the low-risk adenoma group, and 10% [8.6-13], and 17% [14-21] in high-risk adenoma group, respectively. Adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI] of low-risk adenoma (vs. no colorectal adenoma), high-risk adenoma (vs. no colorectal adenoma), current smoking and positive fecal immunochemical test were 1.34 [1.04-1.74], 1.94 [1.48-2.55], 1.55 [1.2-2.02] and 1.69 [1.35-2.1], respectively. Adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI] of positive fecal immunochemical test was 1.88 [1.29-2.74] in those with normal colonoscopy.

Conclusions: Both low-risk and high-risk adenomas confer substantial risk for metachronous advanced colorectal neoplasia at 10 years. Positive fecal immunochemical test was a significant risk factor for metachronous advanced colorectal neoplasia despite normal colonoscopy.