Predicted cardiovascular risk for United States adults with diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and at least 65 years of age

Background: The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood pressure (BP) guideline recommends using 10-year predicted atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk to guide decisions to initiate antihypertensive medication.

Methods: We included adults aged 40-79 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2013-2018 (n = 8803). We computed 10-year predicted ASCVD risk using the Pooled Cohort risk equations. Clinical CVD was self-reported. Analyses were conducted overall and among those with stage 1 hypertension, defined by a mean SBP of 130-139 mmHg or DBP of 80-89 mmHg. In subgroups defined by diabetes, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and age at least 65 years, we estimated the proportion of United States adults with high ASCVD risk (i.e. 10-year predicted ASCVD risk ≥10% or clinical CVD) and estimated age-adjusted probability of having high ASCVD risk.

Results: Among United States adults, an estimated 72.3, 64.5, and 83.9 of those with diabetes, CKD, and age at least 65 years had high ASCVD risk, respectively. Among United States adults with stage 1 hypertension, an estimated 55, 36.7, and 72.6% of those with diabetes, CKD, and age at least 65 years had high ASCVD risk, respectively. The probability of having high ASCVD risk increased with age and exceeded 50% for United States adults with diabetes and CKD at ages 52 and 57 years, respectively. For those with stage 1 hypertension, these ages were 55 and 64 years, respectively.

Conclusion: Most United States adults with diabetes, CKD, or age at least 65 years had high ASCVD risk. However, many with stage 1 hypertension did not.