Non-inferiority in cancer clinical trials was associated with more lenient margins and higher hypothesized outcome event rates

J Clin Epidemiol. 2021 Nov:139:214-221. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2021.08.020. Epub 2021 Aug 23.

Abstract

Objective: To identify potential bias in non-inferiority design of published cancer trials, and to provide suggestions for future practice.

Study design and setting: We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase and CENTRAL databases (until April 17, 2020) to obtain non-inferiority phase III cancer trials and protocols. Distribution of essential characteristics and study design parameters was compared between trials with and without concluding non-inferiority using multivariable logistic regression.

Results: A total of 291 eligible trials were included. We observed that increased odds of concluding non-inferiority was significantly associated with more lenient non-inferiority margins (OR = 1•94, 95% CI 1•02-3•69) and higher hypothesized event rate (OR = 1•24, 95% CI 1•06-1•47). Trials that established non-inferiority adopted margins that were more dispersedly distributed (dispersion OR = 2•90, 95% CI 1•88-4.48).

Conclusion: Although limited by the exploratory nature, our study demonstrated existence of possible distorted non-inferiority design which could incur excess non-inferiority in cancer clinical trials. Pre-registration and transparent reporting of detailed non-inferiority design is imperative for future research.

Keywords: Bias; Event rate; Margin; Non-inferiority; Oncology; Randomized clinical trial.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Clinical Trials as Topic / standards*
  • Clinical Trials as Topic / statistics & numerical data*
  • Data Accuracy*
  • Equivalence Trials as Topic*
  • Female
  • Guidelines as Topic*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Neoplasms / therapy*
  • Odds Ratio
  • Publication Bias / statistics & numerical data*