Decline and incomplete recovery in cancer diagnoses during the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium: a year-long, population-level analysis

Background: Oncological care was considerably impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Worrisome declines in diagnostic procedures and cancer diagnoses in 2020 have been reported; however, nationwide, population-based evidence is limited. Quantification of the magnitude and distribution of the remaining outstanding diagnoses is likewise lacking.

Methods: Using accelerated delivery of data from pathology laboratories to the Belgian Cancer Registry, we compared the nationwide rates of new diagnoses of invasive cancers in 2020 to 2019.

Results: We observed a 44% reduction in total diagnoses of invasive cancers in April 2020 compared with April 2019, coinciding with the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reduction was largest in older patients and for skin cancers (melanoma and nonmelanoma). Reductions in diagnosis were less pronounced among children and adolescents (0-19 years). A smaller decline was observed for most cancers with typically poorer prognosis or obvious symptoms, including some hematological malignancies, lung, and pancreatic cancer. Suspension of organized population screening programs was reflected in a strong decline in diagnosis in the screening age groups for female breast cancer (56%) and for colorectal cancer in both men (49%) and women (60%). The number of diagnoses began to increase from the end of April and stabilized at the beginning of June at or just above 2019 levels. There has yet to be a complete recovery in cancer diagnoses, with an estimated 6%, or ∼4000 diagnoses, still outstanding for all of 2020. Among solid tumors, head and neck cancers have the largest remaining year-over-year decrease in diagnoses at 14%.

Conclusion: These results add to the evidence of a profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on oncological care and identify groups at risk for continuing diagnostic delays. These data should stimulate health care providers worldwide to facilitate targeted, accessible, and efficient procedures for detection of cancers affected by this delay.