Ergodicity-breaking reveals time optimal decision making in humans

PLoS Comput Biol. 2021 Sep 9;17(9):e1009217. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009217. eCollection 2021 Sep.

Abstract

Ergodicity describes an equivalence between the expectation value and the time average of observables. Applied to human behaviour, ergodic theories of decision-making reveal how individuals should tolerate risk in different environments. To optimize wealth over time, agents should adapt their utility function according to the dynamical setting they face. Linear utility is optimal for additive dynamics, whereas logarithmic utility is optimal for multiplicative dynamics. Whether humans approximate time optimal behavior across different dynamics is unknown. Here we compare the effects of additive versus multiplicative gamble dynamics on risky choice. We show that utility functions are modulated by gamble dynamics in ways not explained by prevailing decision theories. Instead, as predicted by time optimality, risk aversion increases under multiplicative dynamics, distributing close to the values that maximize the time average growth of in-game wealth. We suggest that our findings motivate a need for explicitly grounding theories of decision-making on ergodic considerations.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Decision Making*
  • Humans
  • Risk

Grants and funding

HRS received grants from the Novo Nordisk Foundation: (NNF14OC0011413) and the Lundbeck Foundation (R59 A5399 and R186-2015-2138). OJH received grants from the Lundbeck Foundation (R140-2013-13057), and from the Danish Research Council (12-126925). DM received a grant from the Novo Nordisk Foundation (NNF16OC0023090). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.