Epidemiological study of post-traumatic ankle osteoarthritis after ankle sprain in 195,393 individuals over middle age using the National Health Insurance Database: A retrospective design

Objectives: This study aimed to determine the risk of ankle OA onset after an incidence of sprain, relative to the risk of onset in healthy population, and to investigate the effect of gender, age, BMI, and exercise on the development of ankle OA after sprain.

Design: Retrospective cohort study.

Methods: Using a sample cohort dataset from 2002 to 2013 provided by the Korean National Health Insurance Sharing Service, we calculated the mean survival time and cumulative incidence rate in sprained and healthy populations using Kaplan-Meier analysis. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of sprain for the development of OA with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Adjusted HRs of gender, age, BMI, and exercise (yes/no) were analyzed in the sprained group.

Results: Among the selected population of 195,393 individuals, 40,876 (20.9%) were diagnosed with an ankle sprain, and 1543 (3.85%) of those individuals developed ankle OA. Of the 154,517 healthy individuals (79.1%), 4062 (2.66%) cases had progressed to OA. The sprained group had 46% (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.38-1.55) greater rate of progression to ankle OA than did healthy individuals. In the sprain group, individuals who were female, obese, and overweight had 40% (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.26-1.55), 43% (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.12-1.82), and 22% (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.10-1.35) higher incidence to develop ankle OA, respectively, compared to those who were male, underweight and normal.

Conclusions: This study found that ankle sprain was a significant risk factor for a diagnosis of early OA. Female gender and high BMI increased the incidence of ankle OA after sprain.