Correlates of protection against symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection

Nat Med. 2021 Nov;27(11):2032-2040. doi: 10.1038/s41591-021-01540-1. Epub 2021 Sep 29.

Abstract

The global supply of COVID-19 vaccines remains limited. An understanding of the immune response that is predictive of protection could facilitate rapid licensure of new vaccines. Data from a randomized efficacy trial of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine in the United Kingdom was analyzed to determine the antibody levels associated with protection against SARS-CoV-2. Binding and neutralizing antibodies at 28 days after the second dose were measured in infected and noninfected vaccine recipients. Higher levels of all immune markers were correlated with a reduced risk of symptomatic infection. A vaccine efficacy of 80% against symptomatic infection with majority Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant of SARS-CoV-2 was achieved with 264 (95% CI: 108, 806) binding antibody units (BAU)/ml: and 506 (95% CI: 135, not computed (beyond data range) (NC)) BAU/ml for anti-spike and anti-RBD antibodies, and 26 (95% CI: NC, NC) international unit (IU)/ml and 247 (95% CI: 101, NC) normalized neutralization titers (NF50) for pseudovirus and live-virus neutralization, respectively. Immune markers were not correlated with asymptomatic infections at the 5% significance level. These data can be used to bridge to new populations using validated assays, and allow extrapolation of efficacy estimates to new COVID-19 vaccines.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Antibodies, Neutralizing / blood
  • Antibodies, Viral / blood
  • Asymptomatic Infections
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 / immunology
  • COVID-19 / pathology
  • COVID-19 / prevention & control*
  • COVID-19 Vaccines / genetics
  • COVID-19 Vaccines / immunology
  • COVID-19 Vaccines / therapeutic use*
  • Cohort Studies
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Immunity, Humoral*
  • Immunization, Secondary
  • Infection Control / statistics & numerical data
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Patient Acuity
  • SARS-CoV-2 / genetics
  • SARS-CoV-2 / immunology*
  • Treatment Outcome
  • United Kingdom / epidemiology
  • Vaccination
  • Young Adult

Substances

  • Antibodies, Neutralizing
  • Antibodies, Viral
  • COVID-19 Vaccines

Supplementary concepts

  • SARS-CoV-2 variants