Utility of mutational analysis for risk stratification of indeterminate thyroid nodules in a real-world setting

Objective: American Thyroid Association (ATAn) 2015 guidelines recommend repeat fine-needle aspiration with molecular marker profiling (MMP) or diagnostic lobectomy in thyroid nodules yielding atypia of unknown significance/follicular lesion of unknown significance (AUS/FLUS) or follicular neoplasm/suspicious for follicular neoplasm (FN/SFN) cytology. Our objective is to describe the molecular profiles and histological correlates of these cytologically indeterminate nodules (CIN) to aid risk stratification.

Design: Retrospective chart review.

Patients: Adults with CIN that underwent MMP from 2017 to 2020.

Measurements: Pearsons' χ² , Fisher's exact test, nonparametric testing and multiple regression analysis were performed.

Results: A total of 89 CIN underwent mutational analysis. Of 55% (n = 49) were Bethesda class III AUS/FLUS and 45% (n = 40) were Bethesda class IV FN/SFN. The US phenotype of a CIN was isoechoic (53%) or hypoechoic (32%) with well-defined margins (98%), absence of calcifications (75%) and mildly increased internal vascularity (70%). A total of 84% and 87% of nodules were classified as mild/moderate or low/intermediate risk per the Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System and ATA classifications, respectively. Based on the Thyroseq patient management resource, 6.7% (n = 6) of nodules had a high predicted probability of cancer (≥95%), 41.6% (n = 37) were intermediate probability (40%-94%) and 51.7% (n = 46) were low probability (<40%). MMP revealed positive mutations in 45% (n = 40) of nodules, with 71% demonstrating RAS mutations. Of the nodules that underwent resection (n = 38), 39% (n = 15) had malignant pathology. Increasing the threshold to recommend surgical resection to a Thyroseq predicted probability of cancer to ≥50%, had a 100% sensitivity and 65% specificity for detecting malignant nodules (area under the ROC curve: 0.86). The positive predictive value was 37% and the negative predictive value was 100%.

Conclusion: US phenotypes of CIN nodules were variable and did not aid in differentiating malignant from benign nodules. Of the CIN nodules with a positive MMP, most were RAS and had a benign pathology. With the exception of high-risk genetic markers for malignancy, the threshold to recommend surgical resection should be raised for CIN. Further studies to improve risk stratification in these nodules are required.