Cytokine signature and COVID-19 prediction models in the two waves of pandemics

Sci Rep. 2021 Oct 21;11(1):20793. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-00190-0.

Abstract

In Europe, multiple waves of infections with SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) have been observed. Here, we have investigated whether common patterns of cytokines could be detected in individuals with mild and severe forms of COVID-19 in two pandemic waves, and whether machine learning approach could be useful to identify the best predictors. An increasing trend of multiple cytokines was observed in patients with mild or severe/critical symptoms of COVID-19, compared with healthy volunteers. Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) clearly recognized the three groups based on cytokine patterns. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) further indicated that IL-6 discriminated controls and COVID-19 patients, whilst IL-8 defined disease severity. During the second wave of pandemics, a less intense cytokine storm was observed, as compared with the first. IL-6 was the most robust predictor of infection and discriminated moderate COVID-19 patients from healthy controls, regardless of epidemic peak curve. Thus, serum cytokine patterns provide biomarkers useful for COVID-19 diagnosis and prognosis. Further definition of individual cytokines may allow to envision novel therapeutic options and pave the way to set up innovative diagnostic tools.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Biomarkers / blood
  • COVID-19 / blood*
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 Testing
  • Case-Control Studies
  • Cytokines / blood*
  • Cytokines / metabolism
  • Discriminant Analysis
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Interleukin-6 / metabolism
  • Interleukin-8 / metabolism
  • Italy / epidemiology
  • Machine Learning
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Pandemics
  • Regression Analysis
  • SARS-CoV-2

Substances

  • Biomarkers
  • Cytokines
  • Interleukin-6
  • Interleukin-8