[Changes of the number of disease control and prevention staffs at provincial level in China from 2002 to 2018: an interrupted time series analysis]

Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2021 Oct 6;55(10):1192-1195. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20201116-01373.
[Article in Chinese]

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the change of the number of staff at the provincial center for disease control and prevention (CDC) in China before and after the new health care reform. Methods: The data was from publicly reported health statistics yearbooks from 2002 to 2018. Descriptive analysis and interrupted time series analysis (ITS) were conducted in Stata/SE 15. Results: The decreasing trend of total number and average number of CDC staff per ten thousand people further exacerbated in the eastern and central areas after the new health care reform, while the total number of CDC staff in the western area changed from a decreasing trend to an increasing tend and the decreasing trend of average number of CDC staff per ten thousand people slowed down. After controlling the provincial and time fixed effects, the ITS analysis showed that before the reform, the number of CDC staff in central area showed a decreasing trend (P=0.012). After the reform, no statistically significant changes were observed in the number of CDC staff in the eastern, central and western areas increased instantaneously (P>0.05), and the decreasing trend (slope) of the number of CDC staff in the eastern and central areas further increased. The number of CDC staff in the western area changed to an increasing trend (P>0.05). Conclusion: After the new health care reform, the total number and average number of CDC staff at the provincial level have not improved, therefore targeted reform strategies are needed to reverse the continuous reduction of CDC staff and reflect regional differences in the future.

目的: 分析新医疗卫生体系改革(新医改)前后中国省级层面疾病预防控制(疾控)人员数量的时间变化趋势。 方法: 提取整理2002—2018年中国卫生统计年鉴疾控人员数量数据,利用Stata/SE 15统计软件进行描述性分析和间断时间序列分析。 结果: 东部、中部地区疾控人员数量和每万人口疾控人员数量配置的降低趋势在新医改实施后进一步加大,但西部地区人员数量由改革前的降低趋势变为改革后的增长趋势且每万人口数量配置降幅减小。在调整省级和时间固定效应后,间断时间序列分析显示,改革前,中部地区疾控人员数量呈下降趋势(P=0.012);改革后东部、中部和西部地区疾控人员数量变化无统计学意义。 结论: 新医改后省级层面疾控人员数量和每万人口人员配置的下降趋势并未得到改善,应进一步制定针对性的改革策略扭转疾控人员数量的持续减少,并体现地区差异性。.

MeSH terms

  • China
  • Forecasting
  • Health Care Reform*
  • Humans
  • Interrupted Time Series Analysis