Predictors of relapse in MOG antibody associated disease: a cohort study

Objective: To identify factors predictive of relapse risk and disability in myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein associated disease (MOGAD).

Setting: Patients were seen by the neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSD) service in Liverpool, UK, a national referral centre for adult patients with MOGAD, NMOSD and related conditions.

Participants: Patients with MOGAD=76 from England, Northern Ireland and Scotland were included in this cohort study.

Results: Relapsing disease was observed in 55% (42/76) of cases. Steroid treatment >1 month (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.80; p=0.022), transverse myelitis (TM) at first attack (OR 0.03, 95% CI 0.004 to 0.23; p=0.001) and male sex (OR 0.16, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.68; p=0.014) were associated with monophasic disease (area under the curve=0.85). Male sex (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.89; p=0.011) and TM at disease onset (HR 0.42, 95% CI 0.22 to 0.82; p=0.011) were also associated with an increased latency to first relapse. 45% (32/71) of patients became MOG-antibody negative and in relapsing patients negative seroconversion was associated with a lower relapse risk (relative risk 0.11 95% CI 0.05 to 0.26; p<0.001). No specific factors were predictive of visual or overall disability.

Conclusions: Male patients with spinal cord involvement at disease onset have a lower risk of relapsing disease and longer latency to first relapse. Steroid treatment for at least 1 month at first attack was also associated with a monophasic disease course. MOG-antibody negative seroconversion was associated with a lower risk of relapse and may help inform treatment decisions and duration.