A Clinical Predictive Nomogram for Traumatic Brain Parenchyma Hematoma Progression

Introduction: Acute traumatic intraparenchymal hematoma (tICH) expansion is a major cause of clinical deterioration after brain contusion. Here, an accurate prediction tool for acute tICH expansion is proposed.

Methods: A multicenter hospital-based study for multivariable prediction model was conducted among patients (889 patients in a development dataset and 264 individuals in an external validation dataset) with initial and follow-up computed tomography (CT) imaging for tICH volume evaluation. Semi-automated software was employed to assess tICH expansion. Two multivariate predictive models for acute tICH expansion were developed and externally validated.

Results: A total of 198 (22.27%) individuals had remarkable acute tICH expansion. The novel Traumatic Parenchymatous Hematoma Expansion Aid (TPHEA) model retained several variables, including age, coagulopathy, baseline tICH volume, time to baseline CT time, subdural hemorrhage, a novel imaging marker of multihematoma fuzzy sign, and an inflammatory index of monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio. Compared with multihematoma fuzzy sign, monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio, and the basic model, the TPHEA model exhibited optimal discrimination, calibration, and clinical net benefits for patients with acute tICH expansion. A TPHEA nomogram was subsequently introduced from this model to facilitate clinical application. In an external dataset, this device showed good predicting performance for acute tICH expansion.

Conclusions: The main predictive factors in the TPHEA nomogram are the monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio, baseline tICH volume, and multihematoma fuzzy sign. This user-friendly tool can estimate acute tICH expansion and optimize personalized treatments for individuals with brain contusion.