Predictors of progression to systemic sclerosis: analysis of very early diagnosis of systemic sclerosis in a large single-centre cohort

Objective: This study analysed the very early disease of SSc (VEDOSS) characteristics in a group of 217 patients with RP and at least one manifestation of SSc in search of predictors for the progression to SSc.

Methods: This was a cross-sectional single-centre analysis of patients presenting with RP with a specific SSc clinical manifestation or SSc autoantibody or SD pattern at nailfold capillaroscopy (SD-NFC), without skin involvement, who attended a scleroderma outpatient clinic between 2010 and 2019. The performance of VEDOSS and the importance of the combination of VEDOSS characteristics to predict the progression to SSc were evaluated.

Results: Among 217 patients, 153 (70.5%) were classified as SSc, including 65 (30%) in the first investigation; 69.3% of the SSc patients met VEDOSS criteria compared with 6.3% of patients who did not progress to SSc. The combinations most associated with progression to SSc were RP + puffy fingers (PF) + positive ANA + SD-NFC and/or SSc-specific antibody (VEDOSS level 2), with an odds ratio (OR) of 19.52 (95% CI 4.48, 85.06; P < 0.001) and RP + PF + positive ANA (VEDOSS level 1; 'red flags') (OR 15.45; P < 0.001), while combinations without non-RP clinical symptoms, as RP + SD-NFC (OR 0.03; P < 0.001) and RP + anticentromere + SD-NFC (OR 0.06; P = 0.006) were associated with non-progression to SSc.

Conclusion: Among patients with RP with at least one manifestation of SSc, without skin involvement, combinations of VEDOSS characteristics were the strongest predictors of progression to SSc at a median follow-up of 4 years.