Bone mineral content (BMC) of the forearms was measured in 62 healthy early postmenopausal women every 3 months for 2 years to calculate the rate of bone loss. Furthermore, bone turnover was determined at one year using the urinary excretion (UE) of [99mTc]diphosphonate. UE was assessed as a diagnostic test using BMC changes as the gold standard for bone loss. The predictive value for 'accelerated bone loss' (positive test) was 0.58 and for 'non-accelerated bone loss' (negative test) 0.76. The data do not warrant the use of UE as a screening method for bone loss.