Identification of a Four-Gene-Based SERM Signature for Prognostic and Drug Sensitivity Prediction in Gastric Cancer

Background: Gastric cancer (GC) is a highly molecular heterogeneous tumor with poor prognosis. Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) process and cancer stem cells (CSCs) are reported to share common signaling pathways and cause poor prognosis in GC. Considering about the close relationship between these two processes, we aimed to establish a gene signature based on both processes to achieve better prognostic prediction in GC.

Methods: The gene signature was constructed by univariate Cox and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression analyses by using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) GC cohort. We performed enrichment analyses to explore the potential mechanisms of the gene signature. Kaplan-Meier analysis and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were implemented to assess its prognostic value in TCGA cohort. The prognostic value of gene signature on overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and drug sensitivity was validated in different cohorts. Quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) validation of the prognostic value of gene signature for OS and DFS prediction was performed in the Fudan cohort.

Results: A prognostic signature including SERPINE1, EDIL3, RGS4, and MATN3 (SERM signature) was constructed to predict OS, DFS, and drug sensitivity in GC. Enrichment analyses illustrated that the gene signature has tight connection with the CSC and EMT processes in GC. Patients were divided into two groups based on the risk score obtained from the formula. The Kaplan-Meier analyses indicated high-risk group yielded significantly poor prognosis compared with low-risk group. Pearson's correlation analysis indicated that the risk score was positively correlated with carboplatin and 5-fluorouracil IC50 of GC cell lines. Multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that the gene signature was an independent prognostic factor for predicting GC patients' OS, DFS, and susceptibility to adjuvant chemotherapy.

Conclusions: Our SERM prognostic signature is of great value for OS, DFS, and drug sensitivity prediction in GC, which may give guidance to the development of targeted therapy for CSC- and EMT-related gene in the future.