Composite Echocardiographic Score to Predict Long-Term Survival Following Myocardial Infarction

Background: Whilst the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) remains the primary echocardiographic measure widely utilised for risk stratification following myocardial infarction (MI), it has a number of well recognised limitations. The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic utility of a composite echocardiographic score (EchoScore) composed of prognostically validated measures of left-ventricular (LV) size, geometry and function, to the utility of LVEF alone, for predicting survival following MI.

Methods: Retrospective data on 394 consecutive patients with a first-ever MI were included. Comprehensive echocardiography was performed within 24 hours of admission for all patients. EchoScore consisted of LVEF<50%, left atrial volume index>34 mL/m², average E/e >14, E/A ratio>2, abnormal LV mass index, and abnormal LV end-systolic volume index. A single point was allocated for each measure to derive a score out of 6. The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality.

Results: At a median follow-up of 24 months there were 33 deaths. On Kaplan-Meier analysis, a high EchoScore (>3) displayed significant association with all-cause mortality (log-rank χ²=74.48 p<0.001), and was a better predictor than LVEF<35% (log-rank χ²=17.01 p<0.001). On Cox proportional-hazards multivariate analysis incorporating significant clinical and echocardiographic predictors, a high EchoScore was the strongest independent predictor of all-cause mortality (HR 6.44 95%CI 2.94-14.01 p<0.001), and the addition of EchoScore resulted in greater increment in model power compared to addition of LVEF (model χ² 56.29 vs 44.71 p<0.001, Harrell's C values 0.83 vs 0.79).

Conclusions: A composite echocardiographic score composed of prognostically validated measures of LV size, geometry, and function is superior to LVEF alone for predicting survival following MI.