A general pattern of trade-offs between ecosystem resistance and resilience to tropical cyclones

Christopher J Patrick; John S Kominoski; William H McDowell; Benjamin Branoff; David Lagomasino; Miguel Leon; Enie Hensel; Marc J S Hensel; Bradley A Strickland; T Mitchell Aide; Anna Armitage; Marconi Campos-Cerqueira; Victoria M Congdon; Todd A Crowl; Donna J Devlin; Sarah Douglas; Brad E Erisman; Rusty A Feagin; Simon J Geist; Nathan S Hall; Amber K Hardison; Michael R Heithaus; J Aaron Hogan; J Derek Hogan; Sean Kinard; Jeremy J Kiszka; Teng-Chiu Lin; Kaijun Lu; Christopher J Madden; Paul A Montagna; Christine S O'Connell; C Edward Proffitt; Brandi Kiel Reese; Joseph W Reustle; Kelly L Robinson; Scott A Rush; Rolando O Santos; Astrid Schnetzer; Delbert L Smee; Rachel S Smith; Gregory Starr; Beth A Stauffer; Lily M Walker; Carolyn A Weaver; Michael S Wetz; Elizabeth R Whitman; Sara S Wilson; Jianhong Xue; Xiaoming Zou

doi:10.1126/sciadv.abl9155

A general pattern of trade-offs between ecosystem resistance and resilience to tropical cyclones

Sci Adv. 2022 Mar 4;8(9):eabl9155. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abl9155. Epub 2022 Mar 2.

Authors

Christopher J Patrick¹, John S Kominoski², William H McDowell^{3

4}, Benjamin Branoff⁵, David Lagomasino⁶, Miguel Leon³, Enie Hensel¹, Marc J S Hensel¹, Bradley A Strickland¹, T Mitchell Aide⁵, Anna Armitage⁷, Marconi Campos-Cerqueira⁸, Victoria M Congdon^{9

10}, Todd A Crowl², Donna J Devlin¹¹, Sarah Douglas⁹, Brad E Erisman⁹, Rusty A Feagin¹², Simon J Geist¹¹, Nathan S Hall¹³, Amber K Hardison¹³, Michael R Heithaus², J Aaron Hogan², J Derek Hogan¹¹, Sean Kinard¹, Jeremy J Kiszka², Teng-Chiu Lin¹⁴, Kaijun Lu⁹, Christopher J Madden¹⁵, Paul A Montagna¹⁶, Christine S O'Connell¹⁷, C Edward Proffitt¹¹, Brandi Kiel Reese¹⁸, Joseph W Reustle¹⁹, Kelly L Robinson²⁰, Scott A Rush²¹, Rolando O Santos², Astrid Schnetzer²², Delbert L Smee¹⁸, Rachel S Smith²³, Gregory Starr²⁴, Beth A Stauffer²⁰, Lily M Walker¹⁶, Carolyn A Weaver²⁵, Michael S Wetz¹⁶, Elizabeth R Whitman², Sara S Wilson², Jianhong Xue⁹, Xiaoming Zou²⁶

Affiliations

¹ Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA 23062, USA.
² Institute of Environment, Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, USA.
³ Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA.
⁴ Institute of Environment, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, USA.
⁵ Department of Biology, University of Puerto Rico-Río Piedras, San Juan, 00925, Puerto Rico.
⁶ Department of Coastal Studies, East Carolina University, Wanchese, NC 27981, USA.
⁷ Department of Marine Biology, Texas A&M University at Galveston, Galveston, TX 77554, USA.
⁸ Rainforest Connection, San Francisco, CA 94102, USA.
⁹ University of Texas at Austin Marine Science Institute, Port Aransas, TX 78373, USA.
¹⁰ Florida Fish Wildlife Conservation Commission, Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, 100 Eighth Avenue, Southeast, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA.
¹¹ Department of Life Sciences, Texas A&M University Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USA.
¹² Department of Ecology and Conservation Biology, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA.
¹³ Department of Physical Sciences, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA 23062, USA.
¹⁴ Department of Life Science, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei 11677, Taiwan.
¹⁵ Everglades-Florida Bay Ecosystem Lab, South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, FL 33416, USA.
¹⁶ Harte Research Institute, Texas A&M University, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USA.
¹⁷ Department of Environmental Studies, Macalester College, St. Paul, MN 55105, USA.
¹⁸ Marine Sciences, Dauphin Island Sea Lab, Dauphin Island, AL 36528, USA.
¹⁹ Institute of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Morehead City, NC 28557, USA.
²⁰ Department of Biology, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA 70503, USA.
²¹ Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Aquaculture, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS 39762, USA.
²² Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA.
²³ Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903, USA.
²⁴ Department of Biology, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA.
²⁵ Department of Biology, Millersville University, Millersville, PA 17551, USA.
²⁶ Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Puerto Rico, San Juan, PR 00936-8377, USA.

Abstract

Tropical cyclones drive coastal ecosystem dynamics, and their frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution are predicted to shift with climate change. Patterns of resistance and resilience were synthesized for 4138 ecosystem time series from n = 26 storms occurring between 1985 and 2018 in the Northern Hemisphere to predict how coastal ecosystems will respond to future disturbance regimes. Data were grouped by ecosystems (fresh water, salt water, terrestrial, and wetland) and response categories (biogeochemistry, hydrography, mobile biota, sedentary fauna, and vascular plants). We observed a repeated pattern of trade-offs between resistance and resilience across analyses. These patterns are likely the outcomes of evolutionary adaptation, they conform to disturbance theories, and they indicate that consistent rules may govern ecosystem susceptibility to tropical cyclones.