Development of remote sensing algorithm for total phosphorus concentration in eutrophic lakes: Conventional or machine learning?

Phosphorus is a limiting nutrient in freshwater ecosystems. Therefore, the estimation of total phosphorus (TP) concentration in eutrophic water using remote sensing technology is of great significance for lake environmental management. However, there is no TP remote sensing model for lake groups, and thus far, specific models have been used for specific lakes. To address this issue, this study proposes a framework for TP estimation. First, three algorithm development frameworks were compared and applied to the development of an algorithm for Lake Taihu, which has complex water environment characteristics and is a representative of eutrophic lakes. An Extremely Gradient Boosting (BST) machine learning framework was proposed for developing the Taihu TP algorithm. The machine learning algorithm could mine the relationship between FAI and TP in Lake Taihu, where the optical properties of the water body are dominated by phytoplankton. The algorithm exhibited robust performance with an R² value of 0.6 (RMSE = 0.07 mg/L, MRE = 43.33%). Then, a general TP algorithm (R² = 0.64, RMSE = 0.06 mg/L, MRE = 34.13%) was developed using the proposed framework and tested in seven other lakes using synchronous image data. The algorithm accuracy was found to be affected by aquatic vegetation and enclosure aquaculture. Third, compared with field investigations in other studies on Lake Taihu, the Taihu TP algorithm showed good performance for long-term TP estimation. Therefore, the machine learning framework developed in this study has application potential in large-scale spatio-temporal TP estimation in eutrophic lakes.