Associations of long-term physical activity trajectories with coronary artery calcium progression and cardiovascular disease events: results from the CARDIA study

Objective: The study aimed to assess the associations of physical activity (PA) trajectories across a 25-year span with coronary artery calcium (CAC) progression, and subsequent risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events.

Methods: We included 2497 participants from the Coronary Artery Disease Risk Development in Young Adults study who had computed tomography-assessment of CAC at baseline (year 15: 2000-2001) and follow-up (year 20 or 25) and at least three measures of PA from year 0 to year 25. Long-term PA trajectories were determined by latent class modelling using a validated questionnaire.

Results: Among the included participants, 1120 (44.9%) were men, 1418 (56.8%) were white, and the mean (SD) age was 40.4 (3.6) years. We identified three distinct PA trajectories based on PA average levels and change patterns: low (below PA guidelines, n=1332; 53.3%); moderate (meeting and slightly over PA guidelines, n=919; 36.8%) and high (about three times PA guidelines or more, n=246; 9.9%). During a mean (SD) follow-up of 8.9 (2.1) years, 640 (25.6%) participants had CAC progression. Participants in the high PA trajectory group had a higher risk of CAC progression than those in the low PA trajectory group after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors (HR 1.51; 95% CI 1.18 to 1.94). However, high PA trajectory was not associated with an increased risk of incident CVD events (HR 1.01; 95% CI 0.44 to 2.31) and the incidence of CVD events in participants with CAC progression was similar across all three PA trajectory groups (p=0.736).

Conclusion: Long-term PA about three times the guidelines or more is independently associated with CAC progression; however, no additional risk of incident CVD events could be detected.