Scoring Model Based on Nodal Metastasis Prediction Suggesting an Alternative Treatment to Total Gastrectomy in Proximal Early Gastric Cancer

Purpose: Total gastrectomy (TG) with lymph node (LN) dissection is recommended for early gastric cancer (EGC) but is not indicated for endoscopic resection (ER). We aimed to identify patients who could avoid TG by establishing a scoring system for predicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) in proximal EGCs.

Materials and methods: Between January 2003 and December 2017, a total of 1,025 proximal EGC patients who underwent TG with LN dissection were enrolled. Patients who met the absolute ER criteria based on pathological examination were excluded. The pathological risk factors for LNM were determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. A scoring system for predicting LNM was developed and applied to the validation group.

Results: Of the 1,025 cases, 100 (9.8%) showed positive LNM. Multivariate analysis confirmed the following independent risk factors for LNM: tumor size >2 cm, submucosal invasion, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), and perineural invasion (PNI). A scoring system was created using the four aforementioned variables, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves in both the training (0.85) and validation (0.84) groups indicated excellent discrimination. The probability of LNM in mucosal cancers without LVI or PNI, regardless of size, was <2.9%.

Conclusions: Our scoring system involving four variables can predict the probability of LNM in proximal EGC and might be helpful in determining additional treatment plans after ER, functioning as a good indicator of the adequacy of treatments other than TG in high surgical risk patients.